wuwiandClaude Opus 5 131c0fa114 A rate gate needs its sample size derived from the rate
The slid-serve test asked for 6 of 10 sliced serves returned. Measured over 200
trials a seed across eight seeds, the receiver's real rate is 0.85..0.92 — so
the assertion was sound and the SAMPLE was too small: at p ~= 0.88, 10 trials
land at or below 5 with probability ~0.004, one seed in 230, and SEED=80 was it.

n is now 40 at the same 60% bar, which puts the threshold five standard
deviations below the true rate while still failing instantly if the receiver
regresses toward the 0-in-24 the test was born from. It is free: a returned
serve breaks the frame loop early, and the suite still runs in ~0.11 s.

Green on seeds 1..400.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-16 12:15:39 +02:00
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